Ceilidh

Michael Zey
futurist3000@aol.com

He checks e-mail, listens to music and does computer animation work on a silver Dell Inspiron 8600 decorated with SpongeBob Squarepants and Sacramento Kings stickers. Its portability allows him to do these things at home, at friends' homes and at the growing number of coffeehouses with wireless Internet access.

If Yee's house was on fire and he could grab one possession before high-tailing it out of there, it would be his laptop, he said without apology.

"It's on the minute I wake up to the minute I go to sleep," said Yee, 23, while enjoying free Internet access at midtown cafe Infusion on Friday. "I might go to the bathroom first and then turn it on. Or actually, I probably turn it on right when I get up and while it's booting, go to the bathroom."

Technology experts, watchers and pundits say young people like Yee who demand both constant access and portability are fueling the shift away from the clunky desktop computers of yore. Before we know it, those boxy behemoths will be a relic, they say.

"College students, especially, live on their computers," said Dan Bricklin, a computer industry pioneer who invented the first personal spreadsheet, and remembers being mocked when he used an early, heavy and very expensive laptop years ago.

For those who came of age in an era where cell phones and BlackBerrys are the norm, constant access and portability are necessities, he said.

"It's their everything machine," he said. "They write papers, send e-mail, watch movies, and store music and pictures on their laptops. Like SUVs, they're popular because of their versatility."

A study out Friday suggests the laptop/desktop split may have reached a tipping point, in the retail arena at least. In May, notebook computer sales outpaced desktop sales at retail stores for the first time, according to San Diego-based Current Analysis Inc. PC World estimates overall sales for personal computers will hit $209 billion this year.

Analyst Sam Bhavnani pointed out that retail sales account for less than 30 percent of all computers sold in the United States, but said consumers often are a leading indicator of where the rest of the industry will go.

Price and performance are two main factors in the laptop surge, Bhavnani said.

The average selling price of a notebook came within $435 of the average desktop in May, and most laptops now are equipped for wireless Internet access.

"The price-performance gap has narrowed significantly," Bhavnani said. "A couple of years ago a notebook was $1,000 more than a desktop, but the performance was abhorrent."

Now, he said, laptops have the features of most mainstream desktops - lots of memory, big hard drives and DVD players, with the added bonus of wireless Internet access and portability.

That portability is key to Don Lotter's livelihood.

Lotter, 50, could hardly make a living as an itinerant freelance writer, as he calls himself, without his laptop.

Lotter lives out of his camper and travels up and down the West Coast, writing magazine articles about organic farming.

At his side are two laptop computers he bought off eBay and a small $60 device that scans for nearby wireless Internet connection points that he uses to do research and connect with his editors. Sometimes he'll park his camper outside a coffeehouse or even a private home with wireless Internet.

"It's changed being a writer," said Lotter, who said he has a doctorate in agroecology from the University of California, Davis.

On Friday, Lotter sat at Cafe Roma in Davis writing an article about wine made from organically grown grapes, while he listened to an Internet broadcast of a folk music show from KDVS, the student radio station.

He couldn't get Internet service from Cafe Roma - plug-in or wireless - so he had pulled out his "high gain" wireless antenna, a device slightly bigger than a computer mouse, to pick up a strong signal from Ali Baba, the falafel place across the street.

Laptop devotees like Lotter notwithstanding, portables still run a distant second to desktops in overall sales in the United States, said Gartner analyst George Shiffler.

Business and government account for the majority of computer sales in the country, and by and large are still using - and buying - desktops.

For the three months that ended in March, laptops accounted for just 27 percent of all personal computer shipments, he said: They aren't likely to gain even 40 percent of the market before 2009.

"Notebooks are rapidly gaining share, but they aren't for everyone," Shiffler said. Plenty of businesses such as call centers can use lower-price desktops, he said, and businesses still worry that laptops are easier to steal or lose.

Not all companies, though. One area business that has embraced laptops is Intel Corp.'s Folsom campus. "The overwhelming majority of our 6,500 employees use notebooks," said Intel spokesman Dan Francisco. "It's just part of our culture. You go into a conference room and everyone has a laptop open, taking notes, reading e-mail or following the presentation that's being given."

At Sacramento International Airport, laptops have become almost as common as lattes, especially since the airport installed a Wi-Fi network users can tap into for $6.95 a day, said spokeswoman Gina Swinke.

"You even see people checking their e-mail while they are waiting for their baggage," she said. "It's become part of the business culture."

Sociologist and futurist Michael Zey predicts that portable computers will continue to shrink, to the point where hand-held modules will project holographic keyboards.

"We have kind of a workaholic culture already," said Zey, an expert in future trends and developments in technology who teaches at New Jersey's Montclair State University. "Now we're heading in the direction of absolute portability. It's changing the way we work and live."

These days, for example, people think nothing of having loud, personal phone conversations in the middle of a crowd or a grocery store, something unheard of just 10 years ago.

With the continued growth of a wireless culture, "life will be a lot more frantic," Zey predicted. Expect to see people checking e-mail on planes and trains, and working on their handhelds before the lights go down at the movies.

While some Luddites fear the wireless revolution will breed individual isolation, Sacramento resident Ken Burrell says his blue-trimmed Dell Inspiron 5100 has enhanced and nurtured his social life.

Burrell's computer is on about 18 hours a day, and it's his vehicle to keep in touch with friends through instant messenging and e-mail, learn about the world and discover entertainment options.

"I have to stay connected," said Burrell, 31, who just graduated from business school at the University of Michigan. "It's probably one thing I can't live without."

Graphic: Laptops over desktops [20k GIF]



About the writer:
The Bee's Erika Chavez can be reached at (916)321-1203 or echavez@sacbee.com. Bee staff writer Michael Kolber contributed to this report.