Ceilidh

Michael Zey
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"They aren't going to like it if someone in the administrative bureaucracy of a community college says, 'You're going to have to take this pile of coursework that we've determined 18-year-olds need to take,' " Ms. [Judy Goggin] says. "It's not going to be the same as what they'd need if they were entering the field as a young person."

Intel's team of social scientists is developing computerized memory aids, too. The gadgets grew out of a study, begun in 1999, "about digital entertainment that wound up being about dementia," says the company's Mr. [Eric Dishman]. As he spent time in boomer households, trying to show them what they could do with digital TV and broadband access, "they would say, 'I don't need another way to watch TV. I need help taking care of my parents,' or 'I have to figure out how to manage my diabetes.' "

To that end, Dr. [Ken Dychtwald], the San Francisco gerontologist, expects to see "experience agents," a career counselor-cum-travel agent. "You could go to them and say, 'Look, I'm 57, I'm going to take a year off, and I don't know what to do. Help me with a plan,' " he says. "You might spend three months on an archaeological dig, four months living on an island."

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CELLPHONES THAT monitor your body temperature and sleep patterns. Cruise ships that take the place of retirement communities. "Brain gyms" where you sharpen your wits with computer games. Video autobiographies and interactive cemeteries.

The baby boom is about to enter its golden years -- and getting older will never be the same.

On Jan. 1, the first of an estimated 77 million baby boomers, those Americans born from 1946 to 1964, will celebrate their 60th birthday. Through its sheer size -- and, some would say, self-indulgence -- the generation has given rise, or given teeth, to a host of fashions and institutions that are now central to popular culture: rock 'n' roll, working moms, Earth Day, sport-utility vehicles, Botox, shacking up, Viagra and Starbucks.

All of which prompts the question: What comes next?

We asked dozens of professionals across the country who track baby boomers as part of their job, from gerontologists and academics to marketers and venture capitalists. Their answers -- or educated guesses -- cover a range of products, services and lifestyles that could make aging in America more comfortable, convenient and rewarding -- not to mention entertaining.

Clearly, puzzling out boomers' wants and whims as they move into their 60s and beyond could prove a lucrative exercise. Baby boomers account for 42% of all U.S. households and control 50% of all consumer spending, or more than $2 trillion a year, according to a 2002 study by American Demographics magazine.

Here's a look at how the boomers' movement into later life might change the economy and society.

LONGEVITY FOR SALE

Boomers are expected to live longer than any previous generation. Men who reach age 60 can expect to live 20 more years on average; women who reach 60 can expect to live an additional 23.5 years. With tremendous spending power at their disposal, boomers may well try to stay healthy by taking medical treatment into their own hands -- trying all sorts of continuing therapies and experimental fixes for long-term health problems.

"Longevity will be for sale," says Ken Dychtwald, a San Francisco gerontologist and consultant for the health-care and financial- services industries. "You or a loved one has a condition for which there's no cure in the U.S. But you hear there's a breakthrough cure in Germany, so you're going to write a big check to cure the disease and live longer."

Boomers tracking chronic problems also may embrace home technology that gives quick updates on fluctuating blood pressure, glucose levels, cholesterol and so forth. These tools, some of which are already in development, would allow boomers to track their conditions more effectively and seek medical attention more quickly when needed.

"Consumer-directed health could merge with entertainment," says Joseph Coughlin, director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's AgeLab in Cambridge. "Companies like Philips Electronics and Comcast could enter strategic alliances to offer health services through television."

So, your computer might come with an arm cuff to let you check your blood pressure and view the results on screen. Or your cellphone, which you probably wear anyway, could automatically monitor your body temperature, sleep patterns and typical interaction with other people "to develop a trend line," says Eric Dishman, general manager and director of Intel Corp.'s Health Research and Innovation Group in Hillsboro, Ore.

Already, the AgeLab has developed a handheld gadget, called the "personal smart adviser," that scans bar codes in the grocery store and compares product ingredients with guidance provided by your doctor. The prototype has been tested by diabetic boomers and their caregivers. Now a consumer-products company and a grocery chain are considering commercializing it, Dr. Coughlin says.

Also expect an explosion of already-popular nutraceuticals -- natural foods, vitamins or supplements packed with health benefits, such as the arthritis treatment glucosamine, derived from shellfish shells. Then there are cosmeceuticals, or cosmetics that help rejuvenate the body, such as antiwrinkle and baldness treatments that repair the skin or hair follicles.

"The performance of these types of products will continue to improve," says Pamela Prokop, an analyst with Freedonia Group, a Cleveland marketing firm.

Ms. Prokop projects that sales of anti-aging potions and lotions will increase 8.7% annually, reaching $30.7 billion in 2009.

WORK, TAKE TWO

A GI bill for retirement? Marc Freedman, president of Civic Ventures, a San Francisco nonprofit, wants to see a plan of that magnitude to connect older people with opportunities to do good work, either as paid employees or volunteers -- and thereby "help boomers cross a great distance in lifespan and age."

Research shows great interest among baby boomers in staying productive. For example, 75% of boomers intend to keep working in retirement, a recent survey by Merrill Lynch found. But they expect to retire from their current jobs at the average age of 64 -- then launch a new career.

Some want a new job that's more personally rewarding; others want the same type of work, only on a much more flexible schedule. In their new jobs, 42% of boomers want to cycle between periods of work and leisure, according to the Merrill research. (The findings, taken from interviews with 2,300 people ages 40 to 58 last year, have a two- percentage-point margin of error.)

But how are boomers going to find those new jobs, or negotiate those new schedules? Mr. Freedman's group is helping to create a network of later-life career coaches who help boomers ease their way back into the work force.

His group has begun a "Next Chapter" initiative with libraries, community colleges and other local programs across the country, helping them set up programs and gathering spots where people nearing retirement can get "directions and connections" to help figure out their next step. As increasing numbers of boomers join self-help groups and seek counseling about later life, Mr. Freedman thinks the start-up organizations "will [turn] into established institutions that have greater heft," and that the job counselors will develop professional credentials akin to certified financial planners.

But counseling is only the first step. Once they identify what they want to do, boomers are going to demand "simpler, fast-track versions" of traditional educational programs in professions such as teaching and nursing, says Judy Goggin, Civic Ventures' senior vice president, who has been working with local organizers of Next Chapter programs.

"They aren't going to like it if someone in the administrative bureaucracy of a community college says, 'You're going to have to take this pile of coursework that we've determined 18-year-olds need to take,' " Ms. Goggin says. "It's not going to be the same as what they'd need if they were entering the field as a young person."

LIVING TOGETHER

Later life could signal a return to communal living for boomers, particularly as increasing numbers of single, divorced and widowed people seek a lifestyle that's more affordable, social and supportive.

Some groups may settle in neighborhoods where everyone shares a common interest, such as Harley-Davidson enthusiasts "who wear their leathers together and ride their bikes as long as they can," says Brent Green, a Denver marketing consultant who studies boomers. The other extreme could be "people gathering in communities they build together with the common cause of easing the aging process, right into their graves."

Sandra Timmerman, director of the MetLife Mature Market Institute, a resource center on aging in Westport, Conn., says her friends talk a lot about whether to buy a house together. "You might cook together, or have a room for a home-care worker [to stay in] if someone gets sick and needs it. You could have a chauffeur, since so many people can't drive or have trouble at night."

Boomers have already begun to discover "co-housing developments." These neighborhoods, in which residents live in private homes but share a central "common house" with a kitchen and other service facilities, were designed for anybody interested in living communally or conserving resources, such as environmentalists. But they have become increasingly popular with older residents.

In the 82 co-housing neighborhoods that have been built since 1991, one-third of the residents are retirees, says Neshama Abraham, a co- housing consultant in Boulder, Colo. Now, one of the first such developments specifically for people 50 and older is under construction. Silver Sage Cohousing, in Boulder, includes a common building with a kitchen, dining room, library, guest rooms and a treatment room for visiting doctors, physical therapists and other health workers.

A large part of the appeal, Ms. Abraham says, is the "idea of aging in a community. A lot of people talk about aging in place, but it can be very isolating." The hope is that residents can get a lot of their medical needs on site -- and help each other more easily through crises.

On the other hand, some people may give up the idea of a house entirely. Geriatrician Lee Lindquist found through a study last fall that living on a cruise ship would cost about the same as in an assisted-living facility: $33,260 for a year-round cruise versus $28,689 for a year at the average assisted-living facility. (A high- end facility would cost $48,000 or more.) The cruise would provide essentially the same services, including escorts to meals, dining, help with medicine and housekeeping -- plus "look at how much more you're getting on a cruise ship -- the midnight buffet, the pools, and you're treated as a customer, not a patient," Dr. Lindquist says.

She got the idea while on a cruise to the Caribbean with her parents. A few of the other older travelers on the ship said they had been on 20 cruises in the past year -- meaning they were living on a boat about every other week. Boomers she has interviewed say they like the notion. "Part of the appeal is that they wouldn't be with all older people," Dr. Lindquist says. "They'd be mixed in with the frat boys and newlyweds, so they would feel less like it was a nursing home."