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A new year is upon us, and with it comes the customary year-end mix of resolutions and regrets, hopes and fears. And, as with any fresh start, there are the unanswerable questions: What comes next? What is in store for us in 2003?

Residents of Monmouth and Ocean counties, along with various experts, offered a wide range of predictions for the coming year, some gloomy, some rosy, in response to an invitation from the Asbury Park Press to share their thoughts.

As people peer into the uncertain future, they seem to be thinking both of the world at large and of matters closer to home. After all, individuals, families, businesses, organizations, towns, cities, states, nations -- all of these find themselves at the start of something new.

With the possibility of war in Iraq, mounting tensions elsewhere in the Middle East and on the Korean peninsula and the continuing war against terrorism, several residents predicted international affairs would figure prominently in the new year.

"I predict that the most important result of the coming devastation of Iraq will be the end of ruling royalty in the world," said Tom Palven of Farmingdale.

That's a good thing, Palven believes.

"Hallelujah!" he wrote. "Royalty is not only the antithesis of democracy, but the notion that some people should rule others on the basis of heredity is absurd."

Michael Bernardo of Manchester said he expects a U.S.-led war in Iraq will begin sometime in February. The conflict, he said, will lift President Bush's popularity at first but lead to severe repercussions by year's end, either in the form of new terrorist attacks, hostage-taking, a conflagration in the Middle East, or some other crisis.

"It is going to be very messy a year from now," he said, adding that he did not think Bush would handle the crisis well.
Bernardo also offered the following, somewhat less dire, predictions:

"The summer of 2003 will be cool and rainy. Nicolas Cage will win the best actor Oscar for 'Adaptation.' Art Howe will be a failure as manager of the New York Mets. Road construction will remain unfinished on Route 571 south of Route 70."

Gail Lionetti of Hazlet predicted the state's chief executive, Gov. McGreevey, will face "more turmoils" in the coming year.

"He certainly will not be voted in for a second term (and you don't have to be a psychic to know that)," she wrote.
More turbulence ahead

With an eye toward the skies, a forecast team with Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project predicted twice as many hurricanes for 2003 as there were in 2002.

Between June 1 and Nov. 30, the typical hurricane season in the Atlantic, 12 named tropical storms will form in the Atlantic basin, the team predicted. Eight are expected to become hurricanes and three to become "intense" hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater, according to the project's Web site.

There were optimists as well.

James W. Hughes, dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University, predicted that "unless there is a serious external shock, the economy should be rebounding quite smartly during 2003."

Ours is still the leading economy in the world, he said, and the downturn has made companies stronger and more efficient because of greater competition.

"The economy itself is becoming more efficient than it has ever been, and that bodes well for profit growth in the future," he said.

Once profits start to improve after a slow period, companies will start investing in capital improvements again, replacing computers and other equipment, which he said will generate more jobs, turning "a tepid recovery into something stronger."

Carla Martinelli of Asbury Park disagreed.

"Look for no quick recovery by the market until possibly mid-2004," she warned.

Michael Zey, a futurist and professor of management at Montclair State University, predicted technological advances could help push the economy and change the way people interact with one another.

He predicted that a rise in portable Internet access on various hand-held devices will change how people converse, providing information faster than ever.

Portable Web-cam technology also will take hold, he said, possibly allowing people to videotape crimes in progress and send the images directly to police stations, changing how emergencies are reported.

To those who predict only doom and gloom, he recommended a broader perspective.

"What I tell people is you have to look at the big picture," he said. "We are living longer, we are living healthier, if we so choose, and in general the population is better off."

Maryann Anthony of Manchester predicted that Bush will grow a mustache and beard.

"Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein will take this act as a sign of willingness to accept the Islam traditions," she wrote, "therefore, setting the stage for peace."

Offering a strong local prediction, Asbury Park Mayor Kevin Sanders said his city will make great strides in its redevelopment efforts, with visible progress confirming that the city is in the midst of a true comeback after decades of decline.

"We just have so many irons in the fire now, that 2003 must be fruitful," he said. "There will definitely be visible progress, if not on all fronts, on some fronts. Just the overall positive feeling in Asbury Park, which has been growing, will accelerate, rolling through 2003 into 2004."

You can bank on it

Faced with the unknowable, some prognosticators played it safe, often with a sense of humor:

"In the demographic world, we spend a lot of time developing very sophisticated projection models," said Hughes, of Rutgers. "And we can predict with absolute certainty, that 12 months from now, at the end of 2003, the fabled baby boom generation will be one year older."

Bob McKenty of Matawan offered a short poem:

"The ball will fall/ And there will be/ Another year/ Of gravity."
John T. Kelshaw of Beachwood mused on other near-certainties:

"My New Jersey property taxes will go up again. It's a rule," he wrote. "My New Jersey auto insurance will go up again, regardless of any violations. There is no reason."

George Young of Lakewood provided predictions for each month of the coming year.

In February, Yasser Arafat  will shave for Valentine's Day, he predicted, and in July, "Elvis Presley won't be sighted anywhere!"