Ceilidh

Michael Zey
futurist3000@aol.com

THE NEXT RACE FOR SPACE

By Michael G. Zey

Recently Americans have been regaled with stories about dazzling new space achievements. The U.S. has landed two separate “rovers” on Mars, Spirit and Opportunity, which have been sending back to an awestruck world breathtaking photos of the Martian landscape.  The European Union’s orbiting “Mars Express” captured the first photographic evidence ever that Mars indeed contains water and might harbor life in some form. Last October China became the third country, after the U.S. and the former Soviet Union, to successfully launch men into space. Simultaneously the U.S. Stardust mission was snatching up fragments of cosmic dust from a comet tail for analysis and inspection back home.

     Welcome to the new race for space. Until recently, such a term referred to nations racing to launch communications satellites or building Earth-orbit space platforms such as Mir or the international Space Station. The new goal is to visit and establish a permanent human presence on other spheres--the Moon, Mars, and even nearby asteroids--with the idea of tapping into the commercial and energy potential of our near and distant neighbors. The grand prize: global economic leadership.

In January President Bush announced a bold space initiative aimed at keeping the U.S. competitive in this race. We would explore the moon’s surface robotically in 2007-8, develop a new spacecraft to carry astronauts to the moon, launch a manned mission with this new vehicle in 2014, and set up living quarters on the lunar surface shortly thereafter in 2014. By 2018, we would use the proposed moon base to send men to Mars. The President immediately set up a Mars/Moon Commission to get this enterprise off the ground.

     Why settle the moon first? In a recent interview with Reuters, Sun Laiyan vice director of the China National Space Administration, provided an answer.  "We know the moon has rich minerals and resources” Sun said. “Whatever you can find on Earth, you can find on the moon, sometimes in greater quantities."

To acquire these minerals, of course, countries will have to go to the moon and set up mining operations. Wall Street analysts concur that there might be gold on the moon and beyond. On the CBS investment program Market Watch, various commentators asserted that the moon and other orbs could be “chock full” of minerals and ores. David Gump, CEO of Lunacorp, remarked that the moon might contain platinum, a component of spark plugs, catalytic converters, jewelry, and collector-grade coins. Platinum, one of the scarcest of commodities, is actually a broad category of industrial metal that includes palladium, iridium, and a host of other exotic but valuable metals.  According to Gump, the resulting profits from mining the moon’s platinum would more than pay for the transportation costs.

The Chinese are eyeing an even bigger prize, the moon’s apparently abundant supply of helium-3. Scientists think that this isotope, scarce on earth, is a key ingredient necessary for nuclear fusion reactors. Nuclear fusion is considered the next major source of energy, so any country (or company, for that matter) having easy access to helium-3 could wield incredible economic power here on earth.

Not coincidentally, China is making such noises about mining lunar resources just as this giant country’s  explosive economic growth is pushing it to draw heavily on the world’s supply of commodities such as oil, wood, cotton, alumina, steel, diamonds and precious metals right here on earth.
Though President Bush has not suggested as much, his sudden decision to accelerate and expand the US space mission is sparked in some measure by China’s new aggressive stance on space development. China’s extraordinary run of successes in space over the last few years culminated in its launching into earth-orbit three “taikonauts” on its Shenzou-V  just last October. The country's top officials say they intend to challenge the U.S. in space. In 2003 Luan Enjie, the head of China's National Space Administration said "We've got to seize this moment when other countries have no comprehensive plan to return to the moon". At that time China felt that America, reeling from the Challenger shuttle disaster, would place any further manned missions on hold. China, like America, plans to pursue multibillion-dollar programs that include constructing a space station, establishing a permanent moon base sometime between 2010 and 2020, and eventually colonizing Mars. "The moon is a prime platform for man's activities in deep space and beyond," Sun Laiyan said.

     The moon would be a suitable site for constructing solar power stations that would beam energy to earth-based power plants via microwaves. On Market Watch CBS-News space consultant Bill Harwood reminded viewers, and investors, that “you don’t have cloudy days on the moon”.  The lunar surface is also an excellent place to construct and operate astronomical observatories that are larger and easier to service than the airborne Hubble, which has been beaming down information about the universe that has revolutionized not only astronomy, but cosmology as well.

According to Business Week, the strong possibility of profits from energy development, mining, and even space tourism on the Moon, Mars, and even asteroids is luring private companies into a wide variety of space ventures. Small start-ups such as Scaled Composites LLC and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. are developing space planes to venture into outer space on their own. "There's money to be made with cheap space transportation," says Henry R. Vanderbilt, executive director of Space Access Society, a Phoenix group that advocates privatization of space. James W. Benson, founder of rocket engine design company SpaceDev Inc., speculated that "the government won't be needed anymore" once private space planes are available for flights to the moon and elsewhere.  Space tourism is also on the agenda of private companies. Hilton and other hotel chains are considering the possibility of establishing resorts and hotels on the moon.

Importantly, the U.S will have a clear advantage in the international race for space if the power of the private sector is unleashed. After all, the U.S. is the world hub of entrepreneurism and private initiative. It’s also the place where venture capital flows most abundantly.  
     
     If past history is any indicator, exploration and colonization benefits society in ways that cannot be measured in dollars or megawatts alone. As we extend our species geographically, we enhance human potential exponentially. The mass movement of Europeans to the western hemisphere created the cultural mindset that enabled the new inhabitants to invent the democratic republic. Once this type of government took root here, it quickly spread throughout the world.  While we started out looking for gold and silver, we ultimately discovered America. In much the same way our exploration of other spheres will help us advance ourselves in ways that we can hardly imagine.

President Bush’s decision that we should venture into space could not come at a better time for America.  Since 9/11, the US has been engaged in a protracted war on terrorism that drains the national spirit. The more time we expend on fear, the less energy and desire we have to dream and plan. Bush’s call for colonizing the cosmos turns our gaze to the outer spheres and directs our mind towards the future. It is also a stark reminder of who we are as a people, and how we differ from those who threaten our way of life. Let them live in their caves. We will inhabit the cosmos!

When announcing his new space initiative, President Bush said that our ultimate goal should be to “extend a human presence across our solar system.”  There has never been a better time for us to take that big leap into the future.

Bio: Michael G. Zey is full professor, Montclair State University School of Business, author of The Future Factor (Transaction Publishers 2004)