Expansionary Institute

Michael Zey
futurist3000@aol.com

By JOE McDONALD
.c The Associated Press

 
SHANGHAI, China (AP) - The image is as seductive as it is futuristic: a train floating above its track races along at jet plane speed.

Now, Shanghai is buying into that dream. The city is contemplating building the world's first commercial magnetic levitation train, hoping to add to its high-tech luster by becoming a showcase for the costly, controversial ``maglev'' technology.

Ardently pursuing the contract is a German consortium, Transrapid. Germany has poured decades and billions of dollars into developing maglev, as has Japan. Yet neither has put it to commercial use.

German press reports say Shanghai is to sign a contract with Transrapid as early as this month for a 20- to 25-mile line to the 1-year-old Shanghai Pudong International Airport. The venture could cost more than $1 billion.

Negotiations have been taking place, but neither the city government, German officials nor Transrapid will comment. The partners in the consortium are engineering giants Siemens and ThyssenKrupp and train builder Adtranz, owned by DaimlerChrysler.

Maglev boosters call it an alternative to congested highways. The United States, Japan and other countries are considering building maglev lines.

Doubters, including some in Shanghai, wonder whether the city could wind up buying a white elephant. They note that rising speeds delivered by cheaper, proven high-speed rail systems could make maglev obsolete.

``Frankly speaking, the project is controversial in local experts' circles,'' said Yang Shu, a spokesman for the Shanghai City Planning Administration Bureau. ``It will be the first commercial maglev in the world, so it is quite experimental.''

If it works, the payoff could be bigger than just a ride to the airport at 250 mph.

The system's builder could be required to hand over technology - a common condition of major Asian building projects. Overnight, Shanghai would become a center for maglev development. And the railway would stand as proof of this booming, energetic city's daring, visible to every visitor arriving at Pudong airport.

``It has the right ring of next technology, futuristic, 21st century about it,'' said Tony Eastham, an engineering professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. ``Practically, you get a lot of downside. This still is not a fully developed technology.''

Maglev uses powerful magnets to hold a train a few millimeters from the track and propel it with little noise or vibration. In April, a Japanese test maglev set a speed record of 343 mph. By contrast, French high-speed rail tests have reached 310 mph.

Germany has its own test maglev, which a delighted Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji rode in July.

In the United States, seven regions in California, Florida and elsewhere are competing for an experimental maglev. In Japan, developers hope to have it considered for a new Tokyo-Osaka line.

Maglev boosters suffered a setback in February when Germany canceled a planned Berlin-Hamburg line. Railway officials said it would lose money and critics worried its magnets might harm wildlife.

The German news magazine Focus said the proposal for Shanghai would cost $1.2 billion. That includes four 600-seat trains, a drive system and switches, plus building costs of about $350 million.

The German government, eager for a working system to show off to buyers, is offering financing of up to $450 million, the magazine said.

At that rate, Germany would be supplying equipment for free in exchange for Shanghai building the precision-engineered magnetic track.

Shanghai, a sprawling business center with 13 million people, has served as a laboratory for Chinese experiments in economic and social reform. Maglev could do the same for mass transit. The city already has shown a flair for public works projects. In the past five years, Shanghai has built a subway, expressways, a new financial district and a tunnel under the Huangpu River.

Still, it isn't clear how China could capitalize on maglev even if its builders share their research. The technology has yet to win a commercial customer. And engineers say it is so revolutionary that it is unlikely to advance other work on power generation, electronics or weapons.

Maglev also faces growing competition from traditional rail systems.

Trains from France, Japan and Germany itself are offering increasing speed and an impressive safety record that counts only a single fatal crash since the first Shinkansen pulled out of Tokyo Station in 1964.

Even in China, plans for a 1,200-mile high-speed line linking Shanghai to the national capital, Beijing, call for using rail, not maglev.

EDITOR'S NOTE: AP correspondent Colleen Barry in Berlin contributed to this report.

AP-NY-12-18-00 1417EST

Copyright 2000 The Associated Press. The information contained in the AP news report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

Southern California Faced With a Looming Transportation Crisis

 
LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 14, 2000---

Overcoming Major Funding Shortfall, Reforming Transit,

Meeting Airport Demand Among the Challenges Raised by

Southern California Association of Governments'

2001 Draft Regional Transportation Plan

Citing a series of significant short- and long-term transportation dilemmas confronting the Southland, the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) released CommunityLink21, the 2001 Draft Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) Update today.

Following today's release by SCAG's Regional Council, the Draft RTP Update will now undergo extensive public review and comment over the next several months, during which time a number of the region's daunting regional challenges will be discussed and addressed before SCAG adopts a Final RTP next spring.

"CommunityLink21 presents a transportation blueprint that is flexible enough to meet the unique and diverse needs of Southern California while simultaneously meeting federal and state requirements," said Lake Forest Councilman Richard Dixon, chair of SCAG's Transportation and Communications Committee that oversaw the Draft Plan's development. "Given the many challenges this plan raises, it is vital that the RTP Update undergo an extensive community review because we need a concerted regional dialogue over how best to proceed with developing our transportation infrastructure over the next 20 years."

CommunityLink21 is a comprehensive 20-year action plan for the future of Southern California transportation, analyzing and making recommendations on regional transportation facilities, services and strategies in the region, including mass transportation; roads and highways; ride sharing and other commuter alternatives; airports and seaports; goods movement-related facilities and services (air, truck and rail); bicycle and pedestrian facilities; and Intelligent Transportation Systems and related technologies.

The 2001 Draft RTP looks at all these various regional transportation facilities, services and strategies inclusively, assessing how current modes are performing and identifying new strategic investments to accommodate the forecasted growth in Southern California's population and employment base.

By the year 2025, the region is projected to have 7 million new residents and 4 million new jobs, the equivalent of adding two cities the size of Chicago to Southern California.

One of the most daunting dilemmas facing Southern California is a multibillion-dollar shortfall in available funding that will be required to develop, and in many cases maintain, needed transportation priorities.  

Specifically, dwindling gasoline tax revenues, the sunset of sales taxes in San Bernardino, Riverside and Orange Counties by 2010, and other factors will leave the region approximately $10 billion short of the funds needed to maintain the existing system and institute short-term capital improvements.  

The funding shortfall under the existing transportation finance system also leaves no resources available for new strategic investments in key transportation priorities.

As a result, CommunityLink21 recommends a series of transportation funding alternatives to overcome the current system's serious shortfall including: 1) an increase in the gasoline tax by 5 cents in  2005 and by 1 cent each year from 2006 to 2025; 2) an extension of  sales taxes in San Bernardino, Riverside and Orange Counties beyond 2010 and adoption of a similar revenue measure in Ventura County (Los Angeles County has a permanent sales tax for transportation); 3) the institution of a new revenue mechanism on alternative fuel vehicles; and 4) continuation of Gov. Davis' plan to reallocate additional state funds for local transportation projects.  

Implementation of these funding alternatives would overcome the existing shortfall and allow for approximately $30 billion in new strategic transportation investments.

"Southern California needs to consider and institute fundamental reforms to its transportation system's development, maintenance and financing if we hope to sustain the lifestyle we've grown accustomed to during this time of economic prosperity and meet the needs of our ever-growing population," said Los Alamitos Mayor Pro Tem Ronald Bates, president of SCAG.

"What SCAG is proposing for alternative funding strategies is entirely consistent with historical increases in these kinds of revenue sources."

Another issue of major concern is finding regional solutions to managing anticipated air travel and cargo demand. Without developing additional capacity, SCAG's current projections indicate Southern California's airport system will experience a 33 percent shortfall for meeting future air passenger demand and 66 percent shortfall for cargo demand by 2025.  

The RTP predicts that failure to adequately address and plan for this significant growth would result in major air and ground congestion and could seriously jeopardize Southern California's long-term economy as a national and international trade center.

"The demand on Southern California's airport system is at a breaking point," said Ventura County Supervisor Judy Mikels, former chair of SCAG's Aviation Task Force. "We have the largest regional airport system in the world and demand is growing at a steady pace. Without a comprehensive regional plan to accommodate our growing population and airport demand in a fair and equitable manner, we run a serious risk of impacting Southern California's position as a national and international trade center."

The Draft RTP -- along with a related Program Environmental Impact Report (PEIR) that will be released in January -- analyze a variety of aviation scenarios, including the development of a commercial air facility at the El Toro Marine Air Station, the impact of plans to expand capacity at Los Angeles International Airport, the effect of high-speed rail connections between certain airports, and the extent to which outlying airports in Palmdale, Ontario and the Inland Empire can meet the increasing demand for access to and from the Southern California region.

CommunityLink21 also identifies systemic problems with the manner in which Southern California's transit systems are currently operated. While some individual transit operators are attracting great numbers of riders, the overall regional transit system is failing to keep up with the demand and attract enough riders to sustain overall operating costs.  

More specifically, approximately 20 percent of Southern California's transit operators handle about 60 percent of the region's transit riders.

By the year 2025, SCAG estimates that the region will generate approximately 700 million transit trips per year (up from 567 million trips in 1997), but this number still falls far short of what is needed to effectively reduce congestion and vehicle emissions based on the region's expected growth over the next 20 years.

CommunityLink21 recommends a series of policies and actions designed to increase transit use by improving the regional system's overall efficiency and effectiveness, as well as enhancing the number of transit choices available to commuters.

The Draft Plan calls for a significant increase in the capacity of the Metrolink commuter rail system, in addition to the development of dedicated transit corridors in a number of heavily congested areas throughout Southern California.

It also recommends development of an intra-regional high-speed transportation system based on Magnetic Levitation (Maglev) technology that connects the region's major population and transportation centers. Finally, the Draft Plan calls for a series of institutional, operational and financial policy reforms to improve the overall efficiency and effectiveness of Southern California's transit network.

"In order to provide a strong, viable and affordable transit system in the 21st century, the Southern California region needs to seriously focus on reforming our current transit service," said Los Angeles City Councilman Hal Bernson, chair of SCAG's Regional Transit Task Force. "Public outreach and dialogue is especially important in this sector due to the generally decentralized nature of transit service in Southern California. The implementation of these reforms will present numerous challenges and require a regional consensus building process."

CommunityLink21 and the related PEIR will now undergo an extensive two-month period of review and comment, a continuation of ongoing community outreach efforts involving numerous public hearings, workshops and forums throughout Southern California.  

At the conclusion of this public outreach period and following the incorporation of comments and input, SCAG's Regional Council is scheduled to adopt a final RTP in she Spring of 2001, at which point CommunityLink21 will be submitted for federal approval.

Editor's Note: Transportation B-roll and background information on CommunityLink21 can be obtained by calling Jeff Lustgarten or Sarah Cheaure of Cerrell Associates at 323/466-3445. Copies of the draft plan can also be obtained upon request or by visiting SCAG's Web site at www.scag.ca.gov.